Ukraine’s Drone Strikes Trigger a New Fuel Crisis Across Russia

Russia is once again facing growing fuel shortages as Ukrainian drone strikes disrupt its oil-refining industry. After a temporary improvement in late July, problems with gasoline and diesel supplies have returned, forcing Moscow to tighten export restrictions and increasingly rely on fuel imports from abroad.

The renewed pressure comes as Ukrainian attacks continue to target Russian refineries and oil infrastructure. Several facilities have been damaged or forced to reduce production, limiting the amount of crude oil that Russia can process into gasoline, diesel and other refined products. The result is a growing imbalance inside a country that remains one of the world's largest oil producers.

The fuel crisis is returning

The latest deterioration follows a brief period in which Russia appeared to have stabilised its domestic fuel market. By the beginning of August, some of the pressure had eased as refineries returned from maintenance and additional supplies reached the market. That improvement, however, proved temporary.

New Ukrainian strikes have again reduced refining capacity, while seasonal demand has added further pressure. Russian motorists have reported renewed queues at filling stations, and authorities have been forced to take additional measures to protect domestic supplies. Reuters reported that the shortages had begun to return across parts of Russia after the improvement seen at the end of July.

Moscow has responded by extending restrictions on diesel exports through September and maintaining wider limits on fuel exports. The measures are intended to prevent Russian producers from sending too much fuel abroad while domestic supplies remain under pressure.

The situation is particularly notable because Russia is not experiencing a shortage of crude oil. The problem is its ability to process that oil. A refinery can be damaged or forced offline even while oil production continues, creating a bottleneck between the extraction of crude and the availability of usable fuel.

Russia is being forced to import fuel

The growing refining deficit has pushed Russia into an increasingly unusual position for a major oil producer: importing finished petroleum products.

Since late July, Russia has imported more than one million barrels of gasoline by sea, with supplies coming from countries including India. Belarus has also sharply increased fuel deliveries to the Russian market, while Moscow has arranged for Russian crude to be processed at a refinery in Kazakhstan before the resulting products are returned to Russia.

The scale of these measures demonstrates that the problem is no longer limited to individual refinery shutdowns. Russia is having to reorganise parts of its fuel supply system to compensate for lost domestic capacity.

Imports also come with additional costs. Fuel has to be purchased on foreign markets, transported across borders and delivered to regions where supplies are running short. At the same time, restrictions on exports mean that Russian companies have fewer opportunities to sell refined products abroad.

For Moscow, this creates a particularly uncomfortable combination: less domestic refining, fewer refined-product exports and greater spending on imported fuel.

Ukrainian strikes are targeting the weak link

The campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is increasingly focused on the part of the oil industry that is most difficult to replace quickly.

Russia can continue producing crude even when a refinery is damaged, but restoring a large refinery is considerably more complicated. Some facilities require specialised equipment and lengthy repairs, while sanctions can make the replacement of certain components more difficult.

The shutdown of the Orsk refinery illustrates the problem. Following a Ukrainian attack in August, the facility was forced to halt operations, with repairs expected to take months. The loss of one refinery does not bring Russia's fuel system to a standstill, but repeated disruptions at multiple plants can gradually reduce the amount of spare capacity available to compensate for each new outage.

This is why the return of fuel shortages is significant. The problem is not simply that Ukraine has damaged individual facilities. It is that Moscow is struggling to restore enough refining capacity before another disruption occurs.

The pressure is reaching the wider economy

The consequences extend well beyond Russian petrol stations. Diesel and other petroleum products are essential for agriculture, freight transport, construction, manufacturing and the military.

For the Russian armed forces, a reliable supply of fuel is necessary for vehicles, logistics and aviation. Any prolonged disruption therefore creates additional costs for the wider war economy, even if it does not immediately stop military operations.

The Kremlin has tried to prevent the shortages from becoming a broader political problem by moving fuel between regions, restricting exports and encouraging refineries to restore production as quickly as possible. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has insisted that Russia does not face an overall diesel shortage.

At the same time, the government's actions show how seriously it is treating the problem. Export restrictions, emergency imports and increased state intervention would not be necessary if the domestic fuel market were operating without significant disruption.

A problem Moscow cannot easily solve

Russia has the resources to manage the current situation. It remains a major crude producer and can purchase fuel from foreign suppliers while damaged refineries are being repaired. That gives the Kremlin considerable room to absorb individual disruptions.

The problem is that Ukrainian strikes are creating a recurring cost rather than a single shock.

Every damaged refinery requires repairs. Every lost tonne of domestic production increases pressure on other plants. Every imported shipment adds transport and procurement costs. And every export restriction reduces the amount of refined fuel that Russian companies can sell internationally.

The temporary improvement in late July therefore matters because it demonstrated that Russia can stabilise the market when refinery capacity recovers. The renewed shortages show the opposite side of the equation: if Ukrainian attacks continue to remove capacity faster than Russia can restore it, the same crisis can return again and again.

Russia is still producing oil. What is becoming increasingly difficult is turning that oil into enough fuel, at the right time and in the right places.