Czech Elections Test Babiš’s Grip on Power

Czech voters are choosing local representatives and a third of the Senate in the first electoral test of Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’s government, with implications for domestic political stability and the country’s direction within the European Union.

The Czech Republic is holding municipal and Senate elections on 9–10 October, giving voters their first opportunity to signal their satisfaction or frustration with Prime Minister Andrej Babiš since his ANO movement won the parliamentary elections in October 2025. The vote combines local contests across the country with elections for 27 of the Senate’s 81 seats, placing both the government’s political standing and the strength of its opponents under scrutiny.

The elections come at a time when the governing coalition is seeking to consolidate its position after returning to power. ANO governs alongside smaller political parties whose positions include opposition to some key European Union policies and a reduction in Czech support for Ukraine. The results will help indicate whether the coalition’s parliamentary victory has translated into broader political support beyond the national legislature.

A Test Beyond the National Parliament

The Senate elections are particularly significant because the upper chamber remains an institutional counterweight to the government. Although the Chamber of Deputies holds the principal legislative authority, the Senate has an important role in constitutional amendments, judicial appointments and the scrutiny of legislation. It is currently dominated by pro-Western opposition forces, limiting the governing coalition’s influence over certain decisions.

Twenty-seven seats are being contested in a two-round process, with run-off votes scheduled for the following week where necessary. ANO has reason to seek a stronger position: in the comparable 2020 elections, it won only one of the 27 seats at stake. Even a modest increase in representation could strengthen its standing in the chamber, although a decisive breakthrough would depend on the distribution of seats and the performance of other parties.

The Senate’s composition matters beyond the immediate parliamentary arithmetic. A stronger government presence could make it more difficult for opposition parties to resist selected legislative and institutional initiatives. Conversely, continued opposition dominance would preserve an important check on the coalition, particularly where constitutional safeguards and senior judicial appointments are concerned.

Local Politics and National Discontent

Municipal elections introduce a different dynamic. Voters are choosing local representatives whose performance is judged on practical concerns, including public services, housing, transport and the management of municipal budgets. Independent candidates and local political groups traditionally perform strongly in these contests, meaning that national party popularity does not automatically translate into local victories.

Nevertheless, the results can reveal where dissatisfaction with the government is taking hold and whether opposition parties retain organisational strength outside their established electoral bases. Major cities, particularly Prague, are likely to attract close attention because urban voting patterns can differ substantially from those in smaller towns and rural areas.

Turnout will also shape the interpretation of the results. During the first day of voting on 9 October, participation varied by municipality and constituency. Early reports indicated turnout broadly comparable with previous combined municipal and Senate elections, although these preliminary figures did not establish the final level of participation. The 2022 municipal elections recorded turnout of approximately 46%, providing a benchmark for assessing voter engagement once this year's figures are confirmed.

The local contests should not be treated as a straightforward referendum on Babiš. Municipal candidates often build support around personal reputations and local priorities rather than national party programmes. However, a pattern of gains or losses across different regions could offer an early indication of how the political landscape is evolving between parliamentary elections.

Ukraine and the EU Dimension

The election also carries implications for the Czech Republic’s role in European politics. Under Babiš, the governing coalition includes forces that favour reducing assistance to Ukraine and challenging elements of the EU's policy agenda. The country's position on European cooperation and support for Kyiv therefore remains an important point of division between the government and its opponents.

President Petr Pavel and opposition parties have maintained support for Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion. This creates a political contrast between the presidency and opposition on one side and the governing coalition on the other, although the precise consequences for policy will depend on decisions taken by the government and parliament rather than on Senate representation alone.

A stronger Senate opposition could preserve institutional resistance to some government initiatives, but it would not independently determine the country's foreign policy. The government retains substantial authority over its political priorities, while the lower house remains central to the legislative process. The election's significance lies instead in the extent to which voters reinforce or constrain the coalition's broader political mandate.

For the EU, the Czech vote is part of a wider question about how national governments with more sceptical positions towards Brussels operate within the bloc's institutions. Domestic electoral results can influence the political confidence with which governments pursue changes to European policy, even when a local or upper-house contest does not directly determine national strategy.