US Midterm Elections 2026: Democrats Lead in Senate Polls as Trump Faces a Test of Congress

US President Donald Trump spent his last scheduled public appearance before polling day talking about repairs to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. On Monday, 2 November, he stood beside the Washington landmark, displayed photographs of corroded pipes and discussed drainage and resurfacing. He also urged voters to back Republicans.

The Associated Press reported that the newly installed blue lining had peeled and that the Justice Department had dropped a case against a man previously accused of damaging it. Trump nevertheless repeated his claim that vandalism was responsible.

Vice-President JD Vance was campaigning in New York and Ohio on taxation and border security.

The numbers Republicans are defending

Voters will choose all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and governors in 36 states. The House currently has 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies. Independent Kevin Kiley, who left the Republican Party in March, still caucuses with Republicans.

Democrats won 215 seats in 2024; a gain of three would provide a majority in the next House.

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats; the 47-member Democratic bloc includes two independents who caucus with the party. Democrats need to retain their seats and gain four from Republicans. A Senate divided 50–50 would leave Vice-President Vance able to cast a deciding vote.

Early voting increases in competitive states

The Associated Press found advance participation running ahead of the corresponding stage in the 2022 midterms in several states with closely contested elections.

Texas had recorded more than 6.3 million advance votes by 28 October, compared with 4.2 million at the equivalent stage four years ago. Harris County, which includes Houston, had counted more than 862,000, against roughly 564,500 in 2022.

AP reported increases exceeding 30 per cent in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas. South Carolina's increase reached 83 per cent.

Michigan expanded early voting after a constitutional amendment approved in 2022, affecting comparisons with earlier elections. In states reporting voters' party affiliations, AP found stronger early participation among registered Democrats. Those figures do not establish which candidates received their votes.

University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald told Axios that total turnout could exceed the 2022 level and potentially approach participation in 2018.

Prices and presidential approval

The final Reuters/Ipsos survey published on 2 November put Democratic congressional candidates ahead by 46 to 38 per cent among registered voters. The eight-point advantage had narrowed from 11 points a week earlier. Trump's job approval rating stood at 32 per cent.

Among independent registered voters, 50 per cent described their congressional vote as opposition to Trump. Thirteen per cent considered it support for him, while 33 per cent said the president was not a factor.

An FT/Focaldata poll of 2,163 registered voters, conducted from 30 October to 1 November, found that almost 70 per cent disapproved of Trump's handling of inflation and the cost of living. Among independents, the figure reached 77 per cent.

Respondents gave Democrats an advantage of approximately 14 points on managing those issues. On immigration and border security, around half identified Republicans as the better party.

The Financial Times reported that high petrol prices and inflation associated with the Iran war featured prominently in voters' concerns. The newspaper also found that lower prices and a stronger economy were respondents' leading priorities after the elections.

Texas and Kansas challenge Republican electoral records

The final New York Times/Siena surveys, released on 1 November, recorded Democratic leads in all seven states polled.

Texas and Kansas have not elected Democratic senators since 1988 and 1932 respectively. Yet Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton in Texas by 50 to 43 per cent, while Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton polled at 49 per cent against 44 per cent for Republican senator Roger Marshall.

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson led five-term Republican senator Susan Collins by 51 to 45 per cent. Former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown, seeking to return to Washington after losing his Ohio seat in 2024, polled at 49 per cent against 44 per cent for Republican Jon Husted.

The contests were closer in Alaska and Iowa. Mary Peltola led Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan by 48 to 46 per cent in Alaska, where voters rank candidates in order of preference. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek recorded 48 per cent against 47 per cent for Republican Ashley Hinson.

Michigan gave Democrat Abdul El-Sayed the largest lead, 53 to 42 per cent over Republican Mike Rogers. However, the survey was conducted before, or partly before, a dispute involving El-Sayed's defeated primary rival became public.

Siena director Don Levy pointed out that several races remained within the polls' total margins of error. His published assessment was that Democratic control of the Senate was a distinct possibility, but either party could still win the chamber.

North Carolina was not included in the seven-state Siena study. A separate East Carolina University survey, conducted between 26 and 29 October, put former Democratic governor Roy Cooper on 54 per cent against 45 per cent for Republican Michael Whatley.

Of its 1,041 respondents, 47 per cent named the economy and living costs as their leading electoral issue. Among that group, Cooper led by 67 to 33 per cent. The university reported a credibility interval of 3.5 percentage points.

Michigan's Democratic dispute

On Sunday, Democratic congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers, the Republican candidate, after losing the Democratic primary to El-Sayed in August.

The Associated Press reported that Stevens had been uninvited to a planned joint appearance following disagreements over Israel and an advertisement produced by an outside political group. El-Sayed's campaign said it had not produced the advertisement.

Michigan Democratic leaders condemned the endorsement, while Rogers welcomed Stevens's support. The state Democratic Party subsequently expelled her.

El-Sayed campaigned on Monday with Senator Elizabeth Warren and urged concerned supporters to vote. His campaign reported raising $2.4 million on Sunday.

The disagreement followed a primary in which the candidates had differed over Israel and the war in Gaza, according to AP.

Alaska, California and election litigation

In Alaska, the Justice Department went to court over another candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, whose name closely resembles that of the Republican incumbent.

The government alleged that the candidacy could confuse voters. Democrat Mary Peltola denied involvement in recruiting him.

On 1 November, federal judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the attempt to block certification under the conditions sought by the department. AP reported that the Justice Department planned to appeal.

In California, the Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to intervene over approximately 20,000 postal ballots from registered voters whom federal officials alleged might be non-citizens.

California authorities challenged the accuracy of the government's list. Lower courts had rejected the attempt to delay counting the ballots.

Campaign-finance reporting suffered a separate disruption. Reuters reported that a cyberattack took the Federal Election Commission's electronic filing service offline for nearly 41 hours.

The system was restored on 28 October. During the interruption, political organisations could not submit mandatory reports of last-minute expenditure.

The FEC does not administer polling stations or count votes. Reuters said the motive for the attack remained unknown.

House districts and the forecasters

The Cook Political Report moved 12 House race ratings towards Democrats on 30 October. House editor Erin Covey forecast a Democratic gain of between 12 and 25 seats.

Senate editor Jessica Taylor regarded Democrats as slight favourites but identified seven Senate contests close enough to give either party a route to a majority.

The Financial Times singled out two Republicans defending House districts that supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election: Mike Lawler in New York and Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania.

In New York's 17th District, Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley, an army veteran and former national-security official. AP reported that Lawler won the district by fewer than one percentage point in 2022 and by more than six points in 2024.

Financial Times reporting put combined campaign and outside-group spending in the Lawler and Fitzpatrick contests at $52 million in support of the Republicans, compared with approximately $33 million backing their Democratic challengers.

The New York Times/Siena surveys also covered gubernatorial contests. Democrat Rob Sand led Republican Zach Lahn in Iowa by 51 to 43 per cent, while Democrat Amy Acton led Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio by 49 to 43 per cent.

In Texas, Republican Governor Greg Abbott trailed Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 47 to 48 per cent, a difference within the survey's margin of error.

Ukraine, NATO and European trade concerns

Politico reported on 1 November that five NATO diplomats had expressed concerns about the administration's approach to American troop deployments in Europe and arrangements for supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Their comments concerned possible policy developments rather than decisions announced by Washington.

Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson now at the Royal United Services Institute, warned about treating Ukraine, the American military presence in Europe and European security arrangements as bargaining issues in wider negotiations with Russia.

Trade experts interviewed by Reuters made a more specific assessment of congressional powers.

William Reinsch, a former US trade official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said attempts to repeal Trump's tariffs would face the president's veto.

Senator Ron Wyden, the senior Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, identified tariffs on Canadian goods as a priority for repeal.

Reuters also reported that control of congressional committees would allow investigations into tariff exemptions and their effects on businesses.

The agency cited trade specialists who cautioned that a change in congressional control would not automatically reverse Trump's trade measures.

When will the results be known?

Polling stations close at different times across the United States on Tuesday.

The Associated Press says it will call a race only when its analysis establishes that the trailing candidate cannot overtake the leader. Postal-ballot deadlines and Alaska's ranked-choice counting system can extend the process beyond election night.

Trump has rarely been a president to stick to the script. On the eve of the midterms, that script involved drainage pipes, peeling paint and algae.