Spain Snap Election 2026: PP Lead Points to Vox Coalition Risk for Feijóo

Four major opinion polls now project a combined PP-Vox majority in Spain’s 350-seat Congress of Deputies. Their estimates range from approximately 190 to 200 seats, comfortably above the 176 required for an absolute majority.

The figures leave an important question unresolved. Feijóo may be positioned to replace Sánchez, but Vox could have sufficient parliamentary strength to influence the direction of the next government, including its approach to immigration, regional autonomy and European climate legislation.

A Conservative Lead With a Coalition Problem

The scale of the opposition's advantage varies between polling organisations, although the broad parliamentary picture remains remarkably consistent.

A SocioMétrica survey for El Español projects 136 seats for the PP and 66 for Vox, giving the two parties a combined 202 seats. Sánchez’s Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) would secure 108 seats. The survey also estimates that approximately 832,000 voters have shifted from the left towards the right.

Polling by Sigma Dos for El Mundo produces a similar outcome, with 131 PP seats and 68 for Vox, against 105 for the Socialists.

The picture is less decisive in voting intentions. A 40dB survey commissioned by El País and Cadena SER places PSOE support at 29.9%, narrowing the gap with the PP to two percentage points. Nevertheless, its seat projections still give the combined right-wing bloc approximately 190 representatives.

These differences matter because Spain elects its Congress through proportional representation across provincial constituencies. National vote shares do not translate uniformly into parliamentary seats, particularly for smaller parties whose support is geographically dispersed.

For Feijóo, the difficulty is therefore less about whether his party can finish first than about how it could assemble a governing majority.

Vox is projected to win approximately 66–68 seats, potentially doubling its parliamentary presence. Such a delegation would substantially strengthen its negotiating position. A PP government relying on Vox could face demands for ministerial positions, legislative commitments or other concessions in exchange for parliamentary support.

The precise terms remain unknown. No agreed coalition programme or confirmed list of Vox demands is established in the available reporting.

Why Sánchez’s Parliamentary Alliance Unravelled

The immediate trigger for the election was housing legislation, but the government's difficulties extend beyond a single parliamentary defeat.

Sánchez has governed through a fragmented parliamentary arrangement involving left-wing allies and regional parties with competing political objectives. That dependence has repeatedly complicated efforts to pass budgets and substantial reforms.

Housing became a particularly difficult test because it directly affects voters confronting rising living costs and limited access to affordable accommodation.

The rejected decrees sought to strengthen protections against eviction and restrict rental price increases. Their defeat left the government unable to deliver measures central to its response to public frustration over housing affordability.

Political fragmentation has also weakened the wider left.

Attempts to establish a common electoral list failed last month, leaving rival parties competing for a limited pool of voters. The left-wing Broad Front is projected to secure between 10 and 15 seats, while Podemos risks losing its parliamentary representation entirely.

That division could prove decisive even if PSOE recovers some support during the campaign. A fragmented left may struggle to convert its collective vote into enough seats to sustain an alternative governing arrangement.

Regional parties remain another complication. Catalan parties Junts and ERC, alongside the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), have traditionally exercised considerable influence in closely divided parliaments.

Their positions on Catalan and Basque self-determination, however, create potential obstacles to agreements with a conservative government supported by Vox, whose political programme favours stronger central authority.

The opposition's apparent numerical advantage could therefore simplify parliamentary arithmetic while making negotiations over the character of the next administration more contentious.

A Railway Disaster Changes the Campaign

Housing and coalition politics are no longer the only tests of government competence confronting Sánchez.

On 28 October, a railway disaster in Ugena, in Toledo province, killed 69 people. Transport Minister Óscar Puente subsequently resigned, bringing infrastructure safety and public accountability into an election campaign already dominated by economic grievances.

The tragedy has introduced a different dimension to public dissatisfaction. Questions about the affordability of everyday life now sit alongside concerns about the safety and reliability of essential services.

A GAD3 poll indicates that 55% of Spaniards fear travelling by train. Among PP supporters, the figure reaches 71%, rising to 77% among Vox voters.

These findings reveal substantial public anxiety, although they do not establish how many voters have changed their electoral preferences because of the disaster. The particularly high levels of concern among opposition supporters may also reflect broader distrust of the incumbent administration.

The immediate political consequences are nonetheless significant. Puente's resignation has made the government's management of transport infrastructure an unavoidable campaign issue.

Labour unrest threatens to intensify that scrutiny.

Railway workers represented by Semaf have called sectoral strikes for 10 and 12 November, while the CCOO and UGT trade unions have scheduled a general strike for 11 November.

The planned disruption comes as voters assess the government's response to housing pressures, inflation and public service failures.

Turnout projections suggest considerable public engagement. Surveys estimate participation between 74% and 77.2%, compared with 70.38% in the July 2023 general election.

Higher turnout could affect the final distribution of seats, but it does not automatically favour either political bloc. Much will depend on which parties succeed in mobilising less committed voters.

What a PP-Vox Government Could Mean for Europe

The prospect of Vox entering Spain's central government carries implications beyond Madrid, although its actual influence would depend on the coalition agreement and the allocation of responsibilities.

Spain remains one of Western Europe's largest economies governed by a centre-left administration. A conservative government dependent on a hard-right nationalist partner would alter the country's political positioning within the European Union.

Immigration policy offers one potential area of disagreement with the outgoing administration. Vox favours a more restrictive approach, while its preference for stronger central authority could also generate friction over Spain's regional governance arrangements.

European climate policy presents another possible source of tension. A government incorporating Vox priorities could seek to slow or challenge parts of the EU's environmental agenda.

Yet parliamentary influence in Madrid would not automatically translate into decisive power in Brussels.

EU legislation involves negotiations among member states and European institutions. Spain could become more receptive to restrictive migration proposals or objections to environmental regulation without necessarily determining their outcome.

Nor would every PP-Vox disagreement inevitably produce a hard-right policy victory. Feijóo would have to balance the demands of a prospective coalition partner against his own party's governing priorities and Spain's existing European commitments.

For now, the strongest evidence concerns Vox's potential bargaining power, rather than specific concessions already secured.

Markets Remain Calm as Political Risks Grow

Financial markets have shown little immediate alarm over the possibility of a change in government.

Spain's Ibex 35 equity index has risen, while the yield on its benchmark 10-year government bond has narrowed to 3.186%.

Those movements indicate that investors are not currently pricing in an acute economic crisis associated with the election. They do not, however, establish market approval of any particular coalition arrangement.

Political uncertainty and financial instability are different questions. Investors may regard a parliamentary majority as compatible with continued economic stability even while uncertainty persists over the policies that majority would pursue.

For Spanish voters, the more immediate concerns remain unresolved: housing costs, labour disputes and confidence in public infrastructure.

For Feijóo, the central challenge could begin after election night. If the polling projections hold, the PP would have the parliamentary numbers to replace Sánchez, but Vox would possess enough seats to make its support politically valuable.