A High-Stakes Balancing Act: Inside Ukrainian President First Visit to Russia-Friendly Serbia

Despite its status as an EU candidate, Serbia has never joined the sanctions against Russia, and even maintains direct flights to Moscow, which are actively used by those Russians who manage to obtain Schengen visas.

After all, according to Eurobarometer data, 71% of Serbs have a positive attitude towards Russia.

And a few days ago, Vučić again stated that Serbia would not support any EU sanctions against Russia.

But at the same time, the Serbian president had close contacts and cooperation with official Kiev. And he did not even hide it.

Last year, he was in Odesa for the Ukraine-Southeast Europe summit. This summer, he visited Kiev to participate in a similar event.

And although he refused to sign the declarations of these summits both times, which condemned Russian aggression against Ukraine, the very fact of such public contacts is very annoying to the Kremlin.

Therefore, analysts believe that Zelenskyy's two-day visit to Belgrade, the dinner hosted in his honor by Vučić, and the subsequent negotiations are, first of all, a psychological blow to Russia.

If we recall how the Kremlin did not like the Ukrainian president's June visit to Armenia - a country that Moscow considers its representative in the region - then for the Russian political leadership, the visit to Belgrade looks only like a decline in Russia's influence in the Western Balkans.

"The fact that Putin's greatest enemy is now arriving on an official visit to Serbia also allows us to draw certain conclusions about Serbian expectations - the leadership in Belgrade obviously does not have the impression that Putin's forces are facing a decisive victory in Ukraine in the short term," the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) comments on this visit.

Zelenskyy’s arrival in Belgrade shattered long-standing diplomatic taboos. It signaled a dynamic evolution in Eastern European politics, driven by pragmatic defense needs, shared European Union ambitions, and complex sovereignty calculations.

The Geopolitical Context: Unpacking Serbia’s Multi-Vector Foreign Policy

To understand the weight of Zelenskyy's visit, one must look at Serbia's position since the 2022 full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Officially, Belgrade supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity, explicitly recognizing Crimea, Donbas, and all occupied territories as sovereign Ukrainian land. This stance is rooted in domestic necessity: Serbia relies heavily on the international law principle of territorial sovereignty to defend its claim over Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008.

Despite this alignment on territorial integrity, President Vučić consistently refused to join European Union sanctions against the Kremlin, citing Serbia’s total dependence on Russian natural gas, deeply ingrained pro-Russian sentiment among the Serbian electorate, and Moscow’s veto power in the UN Security Council regarding Kosovo.

Yet, beneath the public rhetoric lay a pragmatic relationship between Kyiv and Belgrade. Throughout the war, Serbia supplied vast quantities of artillery shells and small-arms ammunition that reached the Ukrainian frontline through American and European intermediaries. Zelenskyy’s visit formalised these operational realities, transitioning hidden transactions into a visible, high-level diplomatic partnership.

Key Agreements: Free Trade, Energy Grid Support, and Infrastructure

The two-day Belgrade summit produced concrete bilateral commitments focused on economic integration, infrastructure modernization, mutual support for European integration, and critical winter energy resilience. Most notably, both sides reaffirmed that Ukraine's official stance regarding the non-recognition of Kosovo remains entirely unchanged.

A primary deliverable of the talks was the agreement to finalize a Bilateral Free Trade Agreement before the end of 2026, with negotiating teams tasked with expediting economic protocols to reduce tariffs and boost trade volume between the two nations. Additionally, both leaders committed to updating joint railway links and maritime and river port infrastructure to streamline transport routes between the Black Sea region and the Western Balkans.

With Russian strikes decimating a significant portion of Ukraine's thermal power generation, energy cooperation formed a central pillar of the discussion. President Vučić approved a new humanitarian package explicitly tailored to reinforce Ukraine's power grid and healthcare systems. In return, President Zelenskyy expressed gratitude for Serbia's concrete aid, emphasizing that securing electricity and heating for civilians remains a vital national security priority.

In a joint press conference, both leaders also voiced strong support for each other's European integration. Vučić stated that Serbia fully supports Ukraine’s bid to open and close EU accession clusters as quickly as possible. Zelensky emphasized that Europe must send a clear message that every nation pursuing democratic reforms belongs in the European family, cautioning that no nation should be left behind in a security vacuum.

"Soviet" shells to the Ukrainian Armed Forces

While the public agenda emphasized trade, agriculture, and EU integration, the unspoken focus was on weapons. Despite repeated statements by the Serbian leadership that Belgrade does not sell military goods to Ukraine, in reality the supply of Serbian ammunition to the Ukrainian Armed Forces has never stopped. Formally, Serbia sells them to various EU countries, but no one has any doubts about who is the ultimate recipient.

According to Christopher Hill, the US Ambassador to Serbia in 2022-2025, Serbia's readiness to de facto supply Ukraine with the entire necessary range of ammunition, while at the same time guaranteeing that it will not sell military products to Russia, was much more important than agreeing to be "an extra in a rehabilitation regime that is unlikely to change anything in the overall situation."

"Of course, everyone involved in Belgrade knew that countries like Poland or the Czech Republic were not the end users of the weapons. But, of course, these deals did not remain a secret for the Russian side. This is evidenced by several public warnings from Russian intelligence services to Vučić," said Gill.

An important point - Serbia produces ammunition for Soviet-caliber weapons, which is very scarce in Europe.

After the statement of the new Bulgarian government about the suspension of military aid to Ukraine, it is not known whether Sofia will also stop the commercial supply of ammunition - also of Soviet calibers. However, Ukraine decided to play it safe.

After all, these sales are profitable both for Serbia itself, and primarily for those in Vučić's entourage who control the country's defense industry.

Reassurance for the electorate and the Kremlin

During a joint press briefing, the Serbian president reassured the domestic electorate and Moscow. He publicly reiterated that receiving Zelensky did not mean a change in Belgrade's position on anti-Russian sanctions, insisting that Serbia would pursue an independent, sovereign foreign policy.

Vučić separately emphasized that no joint defense projects with Ukraine would be considered until the war was over.

It is worth noting that Vučić received Zelenskyy shortly before the parliamentary and presidential elections. The pro-Russian opposition took advantage of this - they publicly criticized the planned visit and stated that it would spoil relations with Moscow.

However, for Vučić, it seems that improving relations with Brussels is more important now. And Zelenskyy's visit was supposed to contribute to this.

"This visit may influence, at least partially, some Western governments to refrain from overly open criticism or silence some undemocratic actions of the Vučić regime," predicts Dragan Popović, director of the Serbian Center for Practical Politics.

In addition, political scientists note that the current changes in foreign policy do not necessarily lead to a loss of the electorate - since President Vučić is trying to position himself as a figure "who pursues a balanced policy towards major powers, similar to that pursued by the Serbian favorite Tito at one time.

The Reaction in Kosovo: Disappointment, Tension, and Disrobed Flag

The outcome of the Belgrade summit sent immediate shockwaves through Pristina. For years, political leaders in Kosovo had expressed strong solidarity with Ukraine, enacting pro-Western sanctions against Russia and providing military equipment, demining assistance, and refuge to Ukrainian journalists. This unconditional support stood in sharp contrast to Serbia's refusal to sanction Moscow, creating an asymmetrical diplomatic dynamic where Kosovo gave firm backing while Ukraine maintained a policy of non-recognition to preserve international law and its own territorial integrity claims.

When President Zelenskyy explicitly reaffirmed in Belgrade that Ukraine’s official position remains unchanged and that Kyiv does not recognize the independence of Kosovo, the announcement met intense disappointment in Pristina.

Although Zelenskyy actually reiterated Ukraine's long-standing position on recognizing the integrity of Serbia, officials in Kosovo described Kyiv's refusal to acknowledge Kosovo’s sovereignty as deeply disheartening.

In the hours following the announcement, symbolic protests flared up across Pristina, culminating in an incident where the Ukrainian flag was stripped from a  building in the city center as local political groups argued that Kosovo's unrequited diplomatic support needed re-evaluation.