Vannacci’s New Party Gains Support in Italy
Roberto Vannacci’s rapidly rising Futuro Nazionale is reshaping Italy’s political right, creating a new challenge for Giorgia Meloni as voters to her right gain an increasingly powerful alternative.
Italy’s political right is becoming increasingly crowded. Just seven months after its creation, the far-right movement Futuro Nazionale, led by former army general Roberto Vannacci, has become the country’s fourth most popular political force, overtaking Silvio Berlusconi’s former party, Forza Italia, in the latest opinion polls.
The rise of Vannacci’s movement matters not simply because another far-right party has entered Italian politics. It represents a new challenge emerging from within the same political space that brought Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to power — and could gradually reshape the balance of forces inside Italy’s governing right.
According to the latest SWG poll, Futuro Nazionale stands at 7.5%, ahead of Forza Italia at 7.1%. Matteo Salvini’s League is further behind at 5.7%, while Meloni’s Brothers of Italy remains comfortably the country’s largest single party, with 26.8% support.
A new challenger to Meloni’s right
Vannacci founded Futuro Nazionale in February after breaking away from the League. His political project is built around nationalism, opposition to mass migration and the defence of what he describes as traditional values.
The speed of its rise is particularly striking. Italian politics has long produced radical and populist movements, but Vannacci has managed to turn his personal political profile into a national force in only a few months. More importantly, his party appears to be attracting voters from political groups that are already part of Italy’s governing coalition.
That creates a different kind of problem for Meloni. Brothers of Italy remains dominant, and there is no immediate indication that Vannacci could challenge her party for first place. Yet Futuro Nazionale is competing for many of the same voters, creating the possibility that the Italian right could become increasingly fragmented as the next parliamentary election approaches.
Meloni’s dilemma
Since entering office, Meloni has gradually transformed her political position. A politician once regarded by many European governments as a potentially disruptive figure on the continent’s right has instead established herself as one of Europe’s most influential conservative leaders.
Her government has maintained Italy’s support for Ukraine, worked within European institutions and avoided the prolonged confrontation with Brussels that many expected when her coalition came to power. That strategy has helped Meloni move from the political margins towards the European mainstream without losing her position as the dominant figure on the Italian right.
Vannacci offers voters a different version of that politics. His appeal is built on a more uncompromising form of nationalism and anti-immigration rhetoric, allowing him to position himself to the right of a government that was itself once considered radical.
This leaves Meloni with an increasingly complicated choice. Moving further right could help her limit Vannacci’s appeal, but might undermine the political credibility she has built among European partners and more moderate voters. Maintaining her current course, meanwhile, could give Futuro Nazionale more room to present itself as the alternative for voters who believe Meloni has become too establishment-oriented.
Stability does not mean political security
The challenge is emerging at a moment when Meloni’s government has achieved something unusual in modern Italian politics. Her administration has become Italy’s longest-serving government since the Second World War, an important milestone in a country historically associated with unstable coalitions and short-lived governments.
Yet institutional stability does not necessarily translate into political security.
For much of Meloni’s time in office, the main question facing Italian politics was whether the fragmented centre-left opposition could eventually build enough unity to challenge the governing coalition. The emergence of Futuro Nazionale introduces a different problem: the pressure on Meloni may increasingly come from inside the broader right-wing political camp rather than from the opposition.
Vannacci’s party has already overtaken two established members of the governing coalition in polling terms, the League and Forza Italia. That makes his movement more difficult to dismiss as a temporary protest phenomenon and raises questions about how Italy’s right could be organised ahead of the next election.
The central issue will eventually be whether Futuro Nazionale becomes part of a future Meloni-led coalition or develops into an independent competitor. The answer could determine whether Vannacci’s rise ultimately strengthens the broader Italian right or simply divides its electorate into competing factions.
Italy reflects a wider European shift
The development also fits into a broader pattern visible across Europe. In several countries, established conservative and nationalist parties are increasingly facing competition from movements positioned even further to their right.
The political centre is therefore not the only space under pressure. Parties that once represented the radical edge of national politics are themselves beginning to face challengers who argue that they have become too moderate, too institutional or too willing to compromise once they entered government.
For Meloni, that may be the deeper significance of Vannacci’s rapid rise. Her political success has demonstrated that a party with far-right roots can enter government, become a central actor in European politics and retain substantial public support. But moving towards the mainstream can also create an opening for new political figures who promise voters a more uncompromising alternative.
Vannacci’s growing support suggests that Meloni’s greatest long-term challenge may not necessarily come from Italy’s left-wing opposition. It could instead emerge from the political territory that helped bring her to power — and from voters looking for a version of the right that is willing to go further than the government they once considered radical.