Serbia Heads Towards Snap Election Amid Protests Against Vucic

Serbia is entering a new phase of political uncertainty. The ruling Serbian Progressive Party has proposed President Aleksandar Vucic as its candidate for prime minister following a snap parliamentary election expected on 25 October. Vucic himself has said he is prepared to leave the presidency in order to lead the election campaign.

The move comes after months of mass protests that have developed into the most serious challenge to Vucic's rule in years. The student movement that emerged following the Novi Sad railway station disaster has gradually moved beyond demands for accountability over the tragedy, becoming a broader challenge to Serbia's political system.

From tragedy to nationwide protests

On 1 November 2024, a concrete canopy at the railway station in Novi Sad collapsed, killing 16 people. The disaster raised questions over the station's reconstruction, public procurement and possible corruption.

Students responded by blocking universities and organising protests, demanding the release of documents and accountability for those responsible. The movement subsequently attracted public-sector workers, farmers, trade unions and other sections of society.

For Vucic's government, this represented an unusual challenge. The president and his political allies have traditionally relied on a highly organised party structure and considerable influence over the media. The student protests, however, created a separate centre of public mobilisation that has proved harder for the authorities to contain through conventional political methods.

Vucic changes position, not political role

The proposal to nominate Vucic as prime minister does not represent his departure from the political stage. On the contrary, moving into government could allow him to remain the central figure in Serbia's executive power following the parliamentary election.

Vucic's presidential mandate formally limits his ability to participate directly in the party contest. Moving into government would allow him to lead the ruling party's campaign and potentially take direct responsibility for the work of the next cabinet.

For the Serbian Progressive Party, the strategy also allows the campaign to be built around Serbia's most recognisable political figure. At the same time, putting Vucic at the centre of the election underlines the ruling camp's dependence on a single political leader.

Students move towards the ballot box

The key question ahead of the election is whether the protest movement can turn street mobilisation into political representation.

Students are planning to form their own electoral list, bringing together academics, experts and representatives of civil society. This marks a shift from protest politics towards the considerably more complex task of competing for votes.

The movement will also have to compete with established opposition parties. The emergence of a new list could help consolidate voters dissatisfied with the government, but it could also further fragment the opposition vote.

Growing pressure on civil society

At the same time, growing attention is being paid to the methods used against activists. Serbian digital rights group SHARE Foundation has reported cases involving the use of spyware against students and civil society representatives.

According to the organisation, at least 14 people may have been targeted by surveillance software. Pegasus, a tool capable of gaining access to data stored on mobile devices, has been among the technologies identified.

There is no direct evidence that the Serbian authorities ordered or carried out the operations, and the government has rejected the allegations. Nevertheless, the reports have added to concerns about the environment in which opposition groups and civil society will operate ahead of the election.

Between Brussels, Moscow and Beijing

The domestic political crisis also has a wider foreign-policy dimension. Serbia remains an EU candidate country, but its accession process has made limited progress. The state of democracy, institutional independence and the rule of law remain among Brussels' key concerns.

At the same time, Belgrade maintains close relations with Russia and China. Serbia has not joined EU sanctions against Moscow following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while continuing to present EU membership as a strategic objective.

Disputes over Serbia's approach to the legacy of the wars of the 1990s have added further tension with Brussels. For the EU, questions about democratic standards and political accountability are increasingly intertwined with Belgrade's broader foreign-policy orientation.

An election that will test Vucic's system

The snap parliamentary election will test not only the president but the political model that has developed in Serbia during years of dominance by his party.

Vucic will seek to demonstrate that, despite mass protests and criticism from civil society, the ruling system retains enough public support to continue its political course. The student movement, meanwhile, will have its first opportunity to measure its public backing directly at the ballot box.

For the European Union, the result will not be the only consideration. The conditions under which the campaign is conducted, opposition access to the media, the treatment of protesters by state institutions and the transparency of the electoral process will be equally important.