Western intelligence expects prolonged Ukraine conflict as Russia prepares potential mobilization

Western officials and military analysts increasingly expect the war in Ukraine to persist through at least 2027, with high-intensity combat potentially escalating in the coming months. Reports indicate that Russian authorities have recently tested mobilization logistics, including housing and equipping recruits, particularly in regions like Kaliningrad.

While any formal call-up decision is expected to be delayed until after September's elections, Moscow faces ongoing manpower shortages due to heavy battlefield casualties and the growing expense of recruiting volunteer contract soldiers. A digital military registry and updated legal mechanisms are already established to facilitate a draft if ordered. These measures aim to support planned offensives targeting key strongholds such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Sources: Belsat, NEXTA, The Insider.