Europe Is Not Ready for a Prolonged War with Russia, Defence Officials Warn

Europe is increasing defence spending and expanding weapons production, but this may still not be enough to sustain a prolonged war of attrition with Russia. European defence planners working with NATO warn that the continent lacks not only military capabilities, but also the societal resilience needed for a drawn-out conflict. At the same time, Russia continues to use hybrid tools to weaken political support for higher defence spending and assistance to Ukraine.

The warnings were issued at a forum organised by the Munich Security Conference. Participants said European military planning increasingly assumes that, in the event of a direct conflict with Russia, Europe could struggle to sustain a long campaign. This creates a strategic dilemma: the continent must strengthen deterrence while preparing for a conflict that could last for years.

Europe Is Spending More, but Moving Slowly

The problem is not simply a lack of funding. European NATO allies and Canada increased core defence spending by almost 20% in real terms in 2025, while under the Alliance's new commitments, countries have agreed to gradually raise total defence and security-related spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.

Yet money does not automatically translate into military capability. European armed forces remain fragmented, while the production of ammunition, air-defence systems, long-range weapons and drones needs to be scaled up significantly. NATO has acknowledged that the Alliance must accelerate industrial production rather than simply increase defence budgets.

The most significant gap concerns capabilities that Europe still relies heavily on the United States to provide. These include integrated air and missile defence, long-range precision strike capabilities and certain space-based early-warning systems. European defence ministers are already discussing joint procurement in these areas, but the process remains at an early stage.

Hybrid Warfare Is Becoming Part of Europe's Security Landscape

Russia's pressure is not confined to the battlefield in Ukraine. European officials are increasingly warning about sabotage, cyberattacks, election interference, disinformation, attacks on critical infrastructure and other forms of pressure that allow Moscow to influence European societies without engaging in direct military confrontation.

The problem also has a political dimension. Participants at the security forum argued that European governments have not done enough to explain to their citizens the scale of the threat or the cost of preparing for a potential conflict. Governments therefore face the dual challenge of increasing defence budgets while persuading voters to accept cuts or reallocations in other areas of public spending.

This is where hybrid warfare can have its greatest impact. Russia does not necessarily need to defeat Europe militarily if it can instead deepen domestic political divisions, undermine support for Ukraine and fuel war fatigue. Defence resilience therefore depends not only on armed forces, but also on the ability of societies to withstand sustained political and informational pressure.

Domestic Politics Is Becoming a Defence Issue

European capitals are particularly concerned about the growing influence of populist and pro-Russian political forces. In Germany, Alternative für Deutschland continues to oppose support for Ukraine, while important political developments expected in France, Italy and Poland could affect Europe's future defence policies.

Italy has already raised concerns about Russian interference. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has said the country faces cyberattacks on a daily basis and cannot rule out attempts to interfere in elections. Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, meanwhile, has warned that Russia is using social media, artificial intelligence, cyber operations and other tools to penetrate the information space of European societies.

European officials, however, caution against attributing every domestic political problem to Russian propaganda. Economic stagnation, falling purchasing power, the cost of living and war fatigue all have genuine social causes. Russian influence can therefore be effective not because it creates these problems from scratch, but because it exploits divisions that already exist.

Ukraine as Part of Europe's Defence Response

Against this backdrop, Ukraine is increasingly being viewed not only as a recipient of European military assistance, but also as a source of practical military expertise. Italy has already brought in former Ukrainian defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov as an adviser on military innovation. Participants at the Munich Security Conference have also stressed Ukraine's position as the most experienced European army when it comes to modern warfare.

Ukraine's experience is particularly relevant in the field of unmanned systems. According to figures presented at the forum, Ukrainian industry is producing around 200,000 drones a month, while Kyiv aims to reach more than 7 million units by the end of 2026. The sector now includes roughly 500 small and medium-sized companies, illustrating a different approach to defence production — faster, more decentralised and more closely connected to battlefield requirements.

For Europe, this means changing not only the scale of production but also the logic of defence procurement. Analysts at the European Council on Foreign Relations have argued that the traditional model, in which governments spend years purchasing large, finished platforms, is poorly suited to a war where technologies can become obsolete within months.

European Defence After a Possible US Drawdown

Another major factor is the future role of the United States in European security. Washington may make decisions in the coming months about the future deployment of American troops in Europe, increasing pressure on European governments to prepare for greater responsibility for their own conventional defence.

European countries are already moving in this direction. NATO says European allies and Canada are increasing production, procurement and the development of new capabilities, while European states are taking on a growing role in financing military support for Ukraine. For 2026, allies have pledged €70 billion for military equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine and have indicated that they intend to maintain at least the same level of support in 2027.

But Europe's central challenge is no longer simply how much it is willing to spend on defence. The question is whether it can turn those resources into rapid military-industrial mobilisation, resilient societies and a coherent political strategy.