War Reshapes Global Gas Markets as Qatar Loses Exports and Europe Enters Winter with Low Stocks

The war between the United States and Iran over the past six months has significantly reshaped the global gas market. One of the biggest economic casualties has been Qatar, one of the world’s leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) suppliers. Its exports have collapsed by 96%, while US companies are increasing shipments and partly offsetting the loss of Qatari gas. For Europe, this means significantly higher risks ahead of the winter heating season.

Qatar loses almost all LNG exports

Before the war, Qatar accounted for around one-fifth of the world’s daily LNG supplies. However, the country’s dependence on the maritime route through the Strait of Hormuz has made it particularly vulnerable to disruptions in shipping.

According to ICIS data, only 18 LNG cargoes have left Qatar over the past six months, compared with 509 during the same period a year earlier. Two Qatari tankers were also attacked. QatarEnergy did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

The consequences for Qatar’s economy are already running into billions of dollars. Reuters estimates that the country has lost around $24 billion in gas sales revenue. That is equivalent to roughly five months of Qatar’s government revenues based on 2025 figures.

Unlike Qatar, other major oil exporters in the region — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait — have been able to maintain at least part of their exports by using alternative or informal routes. Qatar’s LNG exports have faced far fewer options.

US gas fills part of the gap

The loss of Qatari supplies has not left the global market entirely without gas. US LNG producers are taking on part of the shortfall.

The United States has increased exports, using the disruption in global markets to expand its presence in both Europe and Asia. Reuters reports that US shipments have helped offset part of the decline in Qatari exports. But this does not mean Qatar can simply be replaced: LNG remains a globally traded commodity, and additional cargoes have to be distributed among competing markets.

The shift is also strengthening the role of the United States in Europe’s energy market. Washington is gaining an opportunity to increase its share of European LNG imports at a time when traditional supply routes are under pressure.

However, US gas cannot automatically eliminate the impact of lost Qatari supplies. LNG has to be transported by sea, while available cargoes depend on global competition, prices and shipping capacity.

Europe approaches winter with a storage problem

For Europe, the most immediate concern is the state of its gas storage facilities. Stocks remain historically low for this time of year, while injections are progressing slowly amid high gas prices and constrained LNG supplies.

As of 20 August, European gas storage facilities were around 62% full, compared with 74% at the same point in 2025, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. The European Commission has said there is currently no immediate threat to physical gas supplies. However, lower stocks leave the market more exposed to further disruptions.

Germany, Europe’s largest gas market, is also well below last year’s levels. Its storage facilities were slightly more than half full, compared with around 76% a year earlier. Relatively low summer prices compared with winter contracts have reduced the financial incentive for traders to accelerate injections.

The weather could determine the outcome

For Europe, the key question is not only how much gas is currently in storage, but also how cold the coming winter will be.

If temperatures remain mild, current stocks combined with additional imports could be sufficient to get through the season without a physical shortage. But a cold winter would sharply increase demand and force European buyers to compete for LNG on the global market.

That could create the conditions for another price surge. The European TTF benchmark has already moved significantly higher than at the beginning of the year. On 20 August, prices exceeded €65 per megawatt-hour, with gains of more than 130% over recent months.

This means that even without an outright physical gas shortage, Europe could face another problem: having to purchase scarce supplies at significantly higher prices.

Strait of Hormuz remains the critical bottleneck

The Strait of Hormuz remains at the centre of the crisis. Before the war, a significant share of global LNG trade passed through the strait. Its effective disruption has turned a regional conflict into a global energy shock.

Qatar is particularly exposed because its LNG infrastructure is built around maritime exports. The crisis demonstrates that even enormous production capacity is of limited value if the gas cannot safely reach buyers.

The disruption is also encouraging producers and traders to explore alternative routes. QatarEnergy has begun using mechanisms to move oil through routes avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, although the logistical options for LNG remain considerably more limited.

For the global energy market, the lesson is increasingly clear: the question is no longer simply how much gas the world can produce. It is also whether that gas can be safely delivered to the markets that need it.