The Prague Gambit: Why the Czech Government Might Pit a Pro-Russian Candidate Against Petr Pavel

The question is no longer whether the ruling coalition will challenge Pavel, but who they will send into the arena. Evidence suggests that the governing coalition might end up endorsing a candidate with deep ties to Moscow—or someone heavily influenced by pro-Russian networks.

Heavyweight Clash

The rivalry between President Petr Pavel and Prime Minister Andrej Babiš isn't new; it reached a boiling point in January 2023 during the last presidential election. In that second-round showdown, Babiš managed to secure 41.7% of the vote, but he was ultimately defeated by Pavel, who captured the presidency.

Fast-forward to today—Babiš is sitting in the Prime Minister's chair after his populist ANO party regained power in the parliamentary elections. However, holding power in government hasn't smoothed over relations with Prague Castle. In fact, the friction between the Government and the President has escalated into open political warfare.

Matters reached a crisis point ahead of this year's NATO Summit in Ankara. The Babiš cabinet voted to exclude President Pavel from the official Czech delegation. For context, in 19 out of 20 previous NATO summits, the Czech Republic was represented by its head of state (the only exceptions being when a president was too ill to travel). For Pavel—who served as Chairman of the NATO Military Committee from 2015 to 2018, the highest military position ever held by a Czech citizen—this exclusion was not just an administrative snub; he rightly viewed it as a deliberate personal and institutional attack.

The government justified its decision by claiming Babiš needed to handle defense spending talks directly, especially given criticism over the low military budget passed by his cabinet. Babiš also boasted that his personal relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump would protect the country from harsh critique. Observers, however, saw right through it: this was an attempt to sideline the country's main pro-Western voice.

Pavel refused to accept this insult without a fight. He challenged the government's decision in the Constitutional Court, arguing that the cabinet was systematically attempting to block him from executing his constitutional role as commander-in-chief. The court issued an interim ruling ordering the government to ensure Pavel could attend the summit, leading to an awkward situation where the Czech Republic sent two separate delegations to Ankara. Foreign Minister Petr Macinka even publicly expressed his hope that Ankara would be Pavel's "last" NATO summit.

The Numbers Game

With such intense institutional warfare taking place, one might assume that Babiš is ready for a rematch in 2028. However, recent sociological data paints a much more complicated picture.

A fresh opinion poll conducted by the NMS agency for the publication Novinky—surveying 1,032 respondents between late July and early August 2026—provides a fascinating snapshot of current public sentiment.

Regarding first-round preferences, Petr Pavel leads the field with the support of 39% of voters. Andrej Babiš trails far behind in second place with 15% support. Karel Havlíček, the First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry, ranks third with 11% support, although Havlíček has explicitly stated he has no intention of running for president. Undecided voters or those backing other candidates make up the remaining 35% of the electorate.

In a hypothetical second-round runoff, Petr Pavel would secure 44% of the vote, while Andrej Babiš would receive 37%. Undecided voters and those who would not vote account for a combined 19% of respondents.

These numbers highlight why Babiš is treading so cautiously. While 37% in a second round is a solid foundation, it still leaves him 7 percentage points behind Pavel. In the 2023 election, Pavel won by drawing support from across the political spectrum, including moderate voters who disliked Babiš's populist style.

Currently, the governing coalition is trying to force Pavel into a corner, framing him strictly as the "leader of the opposition." The goal is to make it impossible for pro-government voters to support him. But for Babiš personally, running again and suffering a second defeat would be a catastrophe. A loss would signal weakness, damage his standing as head of government, and potentially invigorate the opposition ahead of future parliamentary elections.

The Immunity Trap

Why would Babiš even consider running if the election seems risky? When Babiš took office as Prime Minister, he was facing active criminal investigations in both the Czech Republic and France related to his vast business empire and financial dealings. Those investigations were frozen due to the official immunity granted by his executive office.

However, ministerial immunity is temporary. If a political crisis collapses his government or if his party loses power in the next parliamentary cycle, that shield would vanish overnight.

A five-year term in the presidential palace at Hradčany, on the other hand, provides one of the strongest constitutional immunities available under Czech law. For a politician navigating persistent legal jeopardy, the presidency isn't just an honorific title—it’s the ultimate legal bulletproof vest.

Yet, because of the high risk of losing to Pavel, Babiš has repeatedly declared throughout 2026 that he does not intend to run. However, Czech political veterans remember that Babiš made similar denials for months prior to the 2023 race, only to jump into the campaign at the very last moment.

The Moscow Connection

If Babiš decides that the personal risk of running is too high, the ruling coalition will have to back someone else. And this is where the story takes a disturbing turn for those who care about the Western alliance.

Enter Miloš Zeman, the former Czech President who spent much of his decade in office acting as one of Vladimir Putin’s most outspoken cheerleaders within the European Union. In August 2026, Zeman broke his silence in an interview with the newspaper Mladá fronta DNES, dropping a political bombshell.

"It is completely obvious that if the government coalition does not nominate its own candidate in the next presidential election, Petr Pavel will be president," Zeman warned. He then offered his solution: "In my opinion, the optimal presidential candidate would be Radek Vondráček."

Radek Vondráček is no minor figure. He is the deputy chairman of Babiš’s ANO party and the former Speaker of the Czech Chamber of Deputies. Following Zeman’s public blessing, Vondráček immediately picked up the narrative, declaring that ANO cannot afford to remain passive in the presidential election and must field a candidate to stop Pavel.

What makes Vondráček such a controversial choice? His past track record regarding relations with Russia. In October 2021, while serving as Parliamentary Speaker, Vondráček made an unusual, unannounced trip to Moscow. The visit was framed as an effort to "restore relations" between Prague and the Kremlin. Crucially, no independent Czech media were permitted to accompany him on the trip.

When Russian state media began leaking details, reports quoted Vondráček as claiming that the "main goal of Czech diplomacy" was resisting sanctions imposed on Russia over its occupation of Crimea. Vondráček never convincingly refuted those statements, prompting the Czech opposition at the time to denounce him as a "Russian lackey." In a dramatic symbolic gesture in April 2022, his successor as Speaker, Markéta Pekarová Adamová, publicly auctioned off the souvenirs Vondráček brought back from Moscow and donated the proceeds to the Ukrainian military.

A Secret Weapon?

Aware that nominating a politician with an obvious pro-Russian stain could backfire with moderate voters, the ruling coalition might be eyeing a completely different strategy—a candidate who appears apolitical at first glance.

Earlier this year, Babiš teased the idea of nominating a woman, hinting that "a female president would undoubtedly suit the Czech Republic." While commentators initially assumed he was referring to his Finance Minister, Alena Schillerová, political insiders in Prague are now pointing to a far more intriguing figure: Ivana Tykač.

Ivana Tykač is a prominent businesswoman, the founder of the charity Women for Women, and was recently named one of the ten most influential women in the Czech Republic by Forbes magazine. She was recently appointed to the governmental council for sports and health, and her public relations strategy is currently being managed by a team closely linked to Babiš.

On paper, an independent candidate focused on philanthropy sounds like a masterstroke—yet there is always a catch.

Ivana Tykač is married to Pavel Tykač, one of the wealthiest energy tycoons in the Czech Republic. Pavel Tykač built his fortune in coal, making him an aggressive critic of the European Green Deal. More importantly, Tykač is the primary financial backer of the Václav Klaus Institute—a conservative, deeply eurosceptic think tank founded by former Czech President Václav Klaus.

The Klaus Institute doesn't just criticize EU regulations; it frequently echoes blatant Kremlin talking points regarding European security and the war in Ukraine. Klaus himself has adopted the vocabulary of Russian state propaganda so thoroughly that mainstream Czech commentators openly refer to him as a Russian political agent.

If Ivana Tykač enters Hradčany with the backing of the ruling coalition, critical questions arise: How independent could she truly be? Would the policies of the Czech presidency be shaped by her husband’s fossil-fuel empire and the pro-Russian, anti-EU ideology of the Václav Klaus Institute?

What Is at Stake

While January 2028 might feel far away, the machinery for the next Czech presidential election is already humming. The ongoing war of attrition between President Petr Pavel and Prime Minister Andrej Babiš isn't just about personal egos or domestic politics—it’s a battle over the country's strategic identity.

Under Petr Pavel, the Czech Republic has positioned itself as a reliable NATO ally, a vocal advocate for European integration, and a crucial logistics hub for military aid to Ukraine.